MN Thunder Academy
ECNL Boys · Midwest BU16 · 8 teams · Minnesota Thunder Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Jan 30, 03:15 PM
St. Croix Valley Recreation Center, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)
| Season so far | MN Thunder Academy | St Croix |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
St Croix average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 03:15 PM at St. Croix Valley Recreation Center.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Indiana Elite FC sit 5th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Indiana Elite FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the St Croix game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MN Thunder Academy – St Croix) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Jan 25 – Sun Jan 31); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 5 | 1st▲ up 5 | 1st▲ up 5 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 5 | 1st▲ up 5 | 1st▲ up 5 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 5 | 1st▲ up 5 | 1st▲ up 5 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 13%
- 2nd 13%
- 3rd 12%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 13%
- 6th 13%
- 7th 12%
- 8th 11%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Inter | 0.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 4 | FC Wisconsin | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Indiana Elite FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 30 03:15 PM |
St Croix 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
St. Croix Valley Recreation Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 09:45 AM |
Chicago Inter 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 21 09:45 AM |
Indiana Elite FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 01:15 PM |
FC Wisconsin 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 09:45 AM |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Indiana Elite FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Chicago Inter 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 12:00 PM |
Rockford Raptors FC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 09:45 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 09:45 AM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.42 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
FC Wisconsin 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
St Croix 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Inter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 20 at MN Thunder Academy · Sun Feb 21 at St Croix · Sat Mar 6 vs FC Wisconsin See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 27 at St Croix · Sun Feb 28 at MN Thunder Academy · Sat Mar 6 at Indiana Elite FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 6 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Mar 13 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club · Sun Mar 14 vs FC Wisconsin See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | FC Wisconsin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 27 at MN Thunder Academy · Sun Feb 28 at St Croix · Sat Mar 6 at Chicago Inter See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Indiana Elite FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 20 at St Croix · Sun Feb 21 at MN Thunder Academy · Sat Mar 6 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | MN Thunder Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 30 at St Croix · Sat Feb 20 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Feb 21 vs Indiana Elite FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Rockford Raptors FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 6 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Mar 14 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | St Croix | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 30 vs MN Thunder Academy · Sat Feb 20 vs Indiana Elite FC · Sun Feb 21 vs Chicago Inter See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.