Louisiana Fire SC

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Tommy Shumpert, Field 1 ↗ far trip

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.8 for, 1.3 against · 2.54 expected points)

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 6–1 vs FC Alliance TN (W)

Common opponents: Lobos Rush — we 4–0; they 1–3. Germantown Legends — we 0–2; they 0–2. Alabama FC — we 5–2; they 1–8, 1–1. Tennessee SC — we 1–9; they 0–3. Tennessee United SC — we 5–1; they 1–1. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC — we 1–2; they 1–6, 0–1.

• They struggle to score
  FC Alliance TN average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 4 of 12.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  FC Alliance TN concede 3.2/game; worst result 1–8 at Alabama FC.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Germantown Legends.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 3–1.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  FC Alliance TN have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 01:00 PM at Tommy Shumpert.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Alabama FC sit 4th on 1.82 PPG; we are on 1.71.

  A point moves us above Alabama FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the FC Alliance TN game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Louisiana Fire SC – FC Alliance TN) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd 5%
3. 3rd 12%
4. 4th 28%
5. 5th 44%
6. 6th 11%
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th
9. 9th
10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).