Oregon Premier FC
ECNL Boys · Far West BU16 · 7 teams · Oregon Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Jan 30, 11:00 AM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Oregon Premier FC | Boise Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Boise Timbers average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Idaho Rush sit 5th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Idaho Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Boise Timbers game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oregon Premier FC – Boise Timbers) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Jan 25 – Sun Jan 31); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 4 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 5 | 1st▲ up 5 | 4th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 4 | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 14%
- 2nd 14%
- 3rd 15%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 14%
- 6th 14%
- 7th 16%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boise Timbers | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Capital FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Eugene Metro FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.39) | Already ahead |
| 4 | FC Portland | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Idaho Rush | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.42) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 6th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 30 11:00 AM |
Boise Timbers 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBA |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 31 11:00 AM |
Idaho Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBA |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
Capital FC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 11:00 AM |
Capital FC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBA |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 11:00 AM |
Eugene Metro FC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBA |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 11:00 AM |
United PDX 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBA |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 11:00 AM |
FC Portland 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBA |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
FC Portland 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
United PDX 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Boise Timbers 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Idaho Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boise Timbers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 30 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Jan 31 at Capital FC · Sat Feb 13 at United PDX See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Capital FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 30 vs Idaho Rush · Sun Jan 31 vs Boise Timbers · Sat Feb 6 vs Oregon Premier FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Eugene Metro FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 6 at FC Portland · Sun Feb 7 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sat Feb 13 vs Capital FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Portland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 30 vs United PDX · Sat Feb 6 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sat Feb 13 vs Idaho Rush See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Idaho Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 30 at Capital FC · Sun Jan 31 at Oregon Premier FC · Sat Feb 13 at FC Portland See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Oregon Premier FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 30 vs Boise Timbers · Sun Jan 31 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Feb 6 at Capital FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | United PDX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 30 at FC Portland · Sun Feb 7 vs Capital FC · Sat Feb 13 vs Boise Timbers See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.