Bend FC
Elite Academy League 2 · Oregon U12 · 11 teams · Bend FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM
Bend FC Soccer Complex, East 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.1 against · 1.59 expected points)
| Season so far | Bend FC | Soccer Chance Academy White |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-1 | 4-0-3 |
| Points per game | 2.29 | 1.71 |
| Goals for / game | 2.9 | 4.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W W | W L W L L |
| Biggest win | 5–1 vs Saints Soccer Academy | 11–0 vs Oregon Surf SC |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs Soccer Chance Academy | 1–4 vs Soccer Chance Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.95 | +1.26 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.98 | -0.28 |
Common opponents: ADF Portland — we 2–2; they 3–2. Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance — we 2–0; they 6–1. Saints Soccer Academy — we 5–1; they 6–1. Oregon Surf SC — we 3–0; they 11–0. Soccer Chance Academy — we 1–3; they 1–4.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Soccer Chance Academy White score 4.4/game — well above the league's 3.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 19% / loss 34%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Soccer Chance Academy White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Bend FC – Soccer Chance Academy White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.13 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.38 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 2.13 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 17%
- 4th 50%
- 5th 30%
- 6th 4%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Westside Metros South | 2.75 (+0.46) | 1st (2.70) | 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Soccer Chance Academy | 2.71 (+0.42) | 2nd (2.66) | 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Westside Metros | 2.38 (+0.09) | 3rd (2.18) | 8 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection |
How the results connect
35 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Bend FC to Soccer Chance Academy White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +2.06 · 1st hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:30 PM |
Soccer Chance Academy White 5th · 4-0-3 · GD +15 |
Home Bend FC Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.59 | 2.20 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 12:30 PM |
Westside Metros 3rd · 6-1-1 · GD +20 |
Away Snyder Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.06 | 2.07 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Westside Metros South 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +39 |
Away Snyder Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 1.92 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Westside Metros South | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 46 | 7 | +39 | 22 | 2.75 | WWWWW | -0.68 | +0.84 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Surf Blue · Tue May 25 vs Bend FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Soccer Chance Academy | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 42 | 10 | +32 | 19 | 2.71 | WWWWW | +0.01 | -1.14 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Westside Metros · Sun Oct 25 vs Saints Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Westside Metros | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 13 | +20 | 19 | 2.38 | LDWWW | -0.75 | +2.05 | 97% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Bend FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Bend FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 16 | 2.29 | WWWWL | -0.98 | +2.06 | 67% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Soccer Chance Academy White · Sun Nov 1 at Westside Metros · Tue May 25 at Westside Metros South See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Soccer Chance Academy White | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 16 | +15 | 12 | 1.71 | LLWLW | -0.28 | +0.38 | 35% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Bend FC · Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Portland · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Surf Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Oregon Surf Blue | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 21 | +9 | 10 | 1.43 | WLWDL | -0.22 | +0.50 | 1% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Saints Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Westside Metros South · Sun Nov 1 at Soccer Chance Academy White See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | ALBION SC Portland | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 | 1.25 | WWLDW | -0.15 | +0.49 | 0% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ADF Portland · Sun Oct 25 at Soccer Chance Academy White See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | ADF Portland | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 8 | 1.00 | LDWLL | +0.38 | -1.28 | 0% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Portland · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 30 | -22 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | +0.69 | -0.73 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Surf SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Nov 1 at ADF Portland See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Saints Soccer Academy | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 39 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.65 | -0.40 | 0% | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Surf Blue · Sun Oct 25 at Soccer Chance Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Oregon Surf SC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Oregon Surf SC | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 64 | -62 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.26 | -2.53 | 0% | 10.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance · Sat Oct 31 vs Saints Soccer Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.