BVBIA DFW
Elite Academy League · Texas U14 · 9 teams · BVBIA DFW (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 01:00 PM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.1 for, 1.5 against · 2.74 expected points)
| Season so far | BVBIA DFW | ALBION SC Dallas (1) |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-1-0 | 3-3-3 |
| Points per game | 2.71 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / game | 5.3 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | D W W W W | W D L D D |
| Biggest win | 8–1 at PSG Academy DFW | 10–2 vs ALBION SC Dallas (2) |
| Worst loss | — | 0–5 vs Steel United TX |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.81 | -0.06 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.40 | -0.13 |
Common opponents: PSG Academy DFW — we 8–1; they 5–3. Atletico Dallas — we 8–1; they 0–3. ALBION SC Dallas (2) — we 7–1; they 10–2. ALBION SC Dallas — we 2–1; they 0–3, 2–2. Steel United TX — we 6–2; they 0–5, 3–2. CF10 Houston FC — we 5–0; they 1–1. BTX SC — we 1–1; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 89% chance; likely score 5–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Dallas (1) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BVBIA DFW – ALBION SC Dallas (1)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.75 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.75 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.38 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 98%
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
43 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link BVBIA DFW to ALBION SC Dallas (1) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.37 · 8th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
ALBION SC Dallas (1) 6th · 3-3-3 · GD +0 |
Home Beacon Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
5–1 | 2.74 | 2.72 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM |
PSG Academy DFW 7th · 2-0-5 · GD -12 |
Home Beacon Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
6–1 | 2.91 | 2.74 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 01:00 PM |
Steel United TX 4th · 4-0-4 · GD +4 |
Home Beacon Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
4–1 | 2.60 | 2.72 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Dallas (1) 6th · 3-3-3 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
4–1 | 2.57 | 2.71 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Dallas 3rd · 4-3-1 · GD +19 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.62 | 2.62 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 01:00 PM |
ALBION SC Dallas (2) 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -35 |
Home Beacon Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
9–0 | 2.99 | 2.65 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 08:00 AM |
Atletico Dallas 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD -3 |
Away Lebanon Trail High School Turf · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
4–1 | 2.59 | 2.64 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 12:00 AM |
CF10 Houston FC 8th · 0-2-2 · GD -7 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
4–1 | 2.71 | 2.65 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
BTX SC 5th · 1-3-0 · GD +4 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 2.60 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | BVBIA DFW | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 7 | +30 | 19 | 2.71 | WWWWD | -0.40 | -0.37 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Sun Nov 15 vs PSG Academy DFW · Sun Nov 22 vs Steel United TX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Atletico Dallas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | +0.92 | -0.26 | 44% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs BTX SC · Sun Nov 8 vs CF10 Houston FC · Sat Nov 14 vs PSG Academy DFW See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | ALBION SC Dallas | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 15 | 1.88 | DDLDW | -0.50 | +0.02 | 99% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at PSG Academy DFW · Sat Nov 14 at Steel United TX · Sun Nov 15 vs Atletico Dallas See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Steel United TX | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 12 | 1.50 | WWLLL | -0.19 | +0.07 | 48% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs CF10 Houston FC · Sun Nov 8 vs BTX SC · Sat Nov 14 vs ALBION SC Dallas See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | BTX SC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 6 | 1.50 | DDWD | +0.78 | -0.18 | 87% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Atletico Dallas · Sun Nov 8 at Steel United TX · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Dallas (2) See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC Dallas (1) | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 22 | +0 | 12 | 1.33 | DDLDW | -0.13 | +0.10 | 18% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at BVBIA DFW · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Dallas (2) · Sat Apr 3 at CF10 Houston FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | PSG Academy DFW | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 | 0.86 | LLWLW | -0.13 | +0.19 | 0% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Dallas · Sat Nov 14 at Atletico Dallas · Sun Nov 15 at BVBIA DFW See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | CF10 Houston FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 | 0.50 | DDLL | +0.77 | -0.45 | 5% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Oct 26 vs ALBION SC Dallas (2) · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Dallas (2) · Sun Nov 1 at ALBION SC Dallas (2) See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | ALBION SC Dallas (2) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 38 | -35 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.79 | -0.03 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Oct 26 at CF10 Houston FC · Sat Oct 31 at CF10 Houston FC · Sun Nov 1 vs CF10 Houston FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.18 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.