Steel United TX (STL)
Elite Academy League · Texas U11 · 5 teams · Steel United TX (all teams)
Next game — Fri Oct 23, 06:00 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.3 for, 3.7 against · 0.80 expected points)
| Season so far | Steel United TX (STL) | ALBION SC Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-1 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / game | 4.7 | 3.5 |
| Goals against / game | 3.3 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W | W L W W |
| Biggest win | 7–0 at ALBION SC Dallas (1) | 6–0 vs ALBION SC Dallas (1) |
| Worst loss | 2–6 vs ALBION SC Dallas (2) | 0–3 at BVBIA DFW |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.46 | +1.19 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.46 | -1.21 |
Common opponents: ALBION SC Dallas (1) — we 7–0; they 6–0, 6–0. ALBION SC Dallas (2) — we 2–6; they 2–1. BVBIA DFW — we 5–4; they 0–3.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
ALBION SC Dallas concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 22%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 06:00 PM at Beacon Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
ALBION SC Dallas sit 1st on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.00.A win moves us above ALBION SC Dallas on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Friday goes…
Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Dallas game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Steel United TX (STL) – ALBION SC Dallas) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.75 PPG |
2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 10%
- 2nd 20%
- 3rd 28%
- 4th 42%
- 5th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Dallas | 2.25 (+0.25) | 1st (2.08) | Win next game |
How the results connect
6 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Steel United TX (STL) to ALBION SC Dallas through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.12 · 3rd hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Oct 23 06:00 PM |
ALBION SC Dallas 1st · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away Beacon Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
2–3 | 0.80 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 06:00 PM |
ALBION SC Dallas (1) 5th · 0-0-3 · GD -19 |
Home Craig Ranch Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
6–1 | 2.80 | 1.92 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Dallas 1st · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–3 | 1.12 | 1.79 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM |
ALBION SC Dallas (2) 3rd · 1-1-1 · GD +3 |
Away Beacon Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
3–3 | 1.11 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
BVBIA DFW 4th · 1-1-1 · GD +2 |
Away Beacon Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
3–3 | 1.17 | 1.63 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | ALBION SC Dallas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -1.21 | +0.52 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 vs Steel United TX (STL) · Fri Oct 30 vs ALBION SC Dallas (2) · Sat Nov 14 at Steel United TX (STL) See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Steel United TX (STL) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.46 | +0.12 | 100% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 at ALBION SC Dallas · Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Sat Nov 14 vs ALBION SC Dallas See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | ALBION SC Dallas (2) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 4 | 1.33 | LDW | +0.70 | -0.73 | 100% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 at ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Fri Oct 30 at ALBION SC Dallas · Fri Nov 13 vs ALBION SC Dallas (1) See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | BVBIA DFW | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 | 1.33 | DLW | +0.76 | -0.71 | 100% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Sun Nov 22 vs Steel United TX (STL) · Sat Apr 10 at ALBION SC Dallas (1) See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | ALBION SC Dallas (1) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 19 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.97 | +0.55 | 0% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 vs ALBION SC Dallas (2) · Sat Oct 24 at Steel United TX (STL) · Sat Nov 7 at BVBIA DFW See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.02 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.