TableChase Clubs

Dublin United Football Club

Elite Academy League · Nor Cal U17 · 7 teams · Dublin United Football Club (all teams)

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6th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
-4 goal diff · 4–8
LLWlast 3
19% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.3
+0.36 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:30 PM

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Dublin United Football Club
6th · 1.00 PPG
vs
ALBION SC Central Valley
2nd · 2.00 PPG

Emerald Glen Park, ESG 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.5 against · 0.90 expected points)

Season so farDublin United Football ClubALBION SC Central Valley
Position6th2nd
Record (W-D-L)1-0-22-0-1
Points per game1.002.00
Goals for / game1.33.0
Goals against / game2.71.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W L LW L W
Biggest win3–2 vs Sonoma Valley United5–1 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley
Worst loss0–4 at Football Club Alliance1–2 at Sonoma Valley United
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.52+0.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.36-0.65

Common opponents: Nevada Futbol Club — we 1–2; they 3–1. Sonoma Valley United — we 3–2; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Football Club Alliance.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 24%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Rocklin FC sit 5th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Rocklin FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Central Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dublin United Football Club – ALBION SC Central Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.75 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
1.50 PPG		 5th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 2 6th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
0.75 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
19% top 4
81% below the top 4
5.3 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 6%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 22%
  6. 6th 54%
  7. 7th 5%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Football Club Alliance 2.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.11) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
2 ALBION SC Central Valley 2.00 (+1.00) 2nd (1.81) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
3 Nevada Futbol Club 1.80 (+0.80) 3rd (1.59) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
4 Sonoma Valley United 1.50 (+0.50) 5th (1.43) Win next game
5 Rocklin FC 1.33 (+0.33) 4th (1.50) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Dublin United Football Club to ALBION SC Central Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–2 2–1 1–2 1–3 4–3 0–4 4–0 7–1 1–5 1–2 Dublin United Footb… 6th Sonoma Valley United 4th Nevada Futbol Club 3rd Football Club Allia… 1st ALBION SC Silicon V… 7th ALBION SC Central V… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

1st 4th 7th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 4th hardest of 7

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:30 PM		 ALBION SC Central Valley
2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +5		 Home
Emerald Glen Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.90 0.98 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:15 PM		 Rocklin FC
5th · 1-1-1 · GD +2		 Away
Placer Valley Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.85 0.95 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Silicon Valley
7th · 0-0-3 · GD -13		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 3–1 2.15 1.15 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
10:00 AM		 Nevada Futbol Club
3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 2–2 1.26 1.17 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Football Club Alliance
1st · 3-1-1 · GD +13		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.57 1.09 Upside
Sun Apr 4
01:00 PM		 Sonoma Valley United
4th · 2-0-2 · GD -3		 Away
Adele Harrison Middle School		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–2 1.09 1.09 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Central Valley
2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +5		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.66 1.05 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Rocklin FC
5th · 1-1-1 · GD +2		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–2 1.11 1.05 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Silicon Valley
7th · 0-0-3 · GD -13		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–2 1.85 1.12 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Football Club Alliance 5311 174+13 102.00 WWDLW -0.50 -0.14 99% 1.5
2 ALBION SC Central Valley 3201 94+5 62.00 WLW -0.65 +0.03 91% 2.6
3 Nevada Futbol Club 5302 1111+0 91.80 WWLWL +0.36 -0.30 74% 3.6
4 Sonoma Valley United 4202 811-3 61.50 LWWL +0.36 -0.20 53% 4.3
5 Rocklin FC 3111 75+2 41.33 WLD -0.08 -0.07 64% 3.9
6 Dublin United Football Club 3102 48-4 31.00 LLW +0.36 -0.07 19% 5.3
7 ALBION SC Silicon Valley 3003 316-13 00.00 LLL +0.84 +0.09 0% 6.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.