Nevada Futbol Club
Elite Academy League · Nor Cal U16 · 7 teams · Nevada Futbol Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 21, 03:00 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.1 for, 3.9 against · 0.27 expected points)
| Season so far | Nevada Futbol Club | ALBION SC Silicon Valley |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-4 | 2-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 3.7 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D L L L L | L W W |
| Biggest win | — | 6–1 at Rocklin FC |
| Worst loss | 0–6 vs Sonoma Valley United | 1–2 at Football Club Alliance |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.39 | +0.89 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.11 | -0.44 |
Common opponents: Rocklin FC — we 1–3; they 6–1. Football Club Alliance — we 1–3; they 1–2. ALBION SC Central Valley — we 1–1; they 4–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
ALBION SC Silicon Valley score 3.7/game — well above the league's 2.1.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 vs Sonoma Valley United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 6%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Bechet Field.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
ALBION SC Central Valley sit 6th on 0.33 PPG; we are on 0.20.A point moves us above ALBION SC Central Valley on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Silicon Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nevada Futbol Club – ALBION SC Silicon Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.17 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Win 0.67 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.33 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Loss 0.17 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 16%
- 7th 82%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 1.83 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sonoma Valley United | 3.00 (+2.80) | 1st (2.62) | 35 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | ALBION SC Silicon Valley | 2.00 (+1.80) | 2nd (1.91) | 23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Dublin United Football Club | 2.00 (+1.80) | 3rd (1.69) | 23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 4 | Football Club Alliance | 1.80 (+1.60) | 4th (1.66) | 21 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 5 | Rocklin FC | 1.00 (+0.80) | 5th (1.00) | 11 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 6 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 0.33 (+0.13) | 6th (0.78) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
8 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Nevada Futbol Club to ALBION SC Silicon Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.33 · 1st hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 21 03:00 PM |
ALBION SC Silicon Valley 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +6 |
Away Bechet Field |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–3 | 0.27 | 0.21 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 PM |
Dublin United Football Club 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–2 | 0.49 | 0.25 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
Rocklin FC 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.77 | 0.32 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Silicon Valley 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +6 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.42 | 0.33 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 PM |
ALBION SC Central Valley 6th · 0-1-2 · GD -6 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.95 | 0.39 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
Football Club Alliance 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.53 | 0.40 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:00 PM |
Sonoma Valley United 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13 |
Away Sonoma Valley High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–3 | 0.13 | 0.38 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Sonoma Valley United | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.48 | -0.19 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Mar 7 vs Football Club Alliance See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | ALBION SC Silicon Valley | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.44 | -0.03 | 99% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Nov 15 at Dublin United Football Club · Sat Nov 21 vs Nevada Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Dublin United Football Club | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.29 | -0.09 | 92% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sun Nov 8 at Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 15 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Football Club Alliance | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 9 | 1.80 | LLWWW | +0.12 | -0.14 | 94% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sun Mar 7 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Mar 14 at Dublin United Football Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Rocklin FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | -0.12 | +0.21 | 11% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Nov 8 vs Dublin United Football Club · Sun Nov 15 at ALBION SC Central Valley See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | 0.33 | LLD | +0.38 | +0.07 | 5% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dublin United Football Club · Sun Nov 8 at Football Club Alliance · Sun Nov 15 vs Rocklin FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Nevada Futbol Club | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLLD | +0.11 | +0.33 | 0% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Mar 7 at Dublin United Football Club · Sun Mar 14 at Rocklin FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.