Sonoma Valley United
Elite Academy League · Nor Cal U14 · 7 teams · Sonoma Valley United (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
Sonoma Valley High School, Midgley Field ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.3 for, 4.3 against · 0.27 expected points)
| Season so far | Sonoma Valley United | Rocklin FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-2 | 3-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 4.3 |
| Goals against / game | 3.5 | 0.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W L | W W W |
| Biggest win | 4–2 vs ALBION SC Central Valley | 6–1 vs Football Club Alliance |
| Worst loss | 0–6 at Football Club Alliance | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.87 | +1.88 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.20 | -0.28 |
Common opponents: Football Club Alliance — we 0–6; they 6–1. Nevada Futbol Club — we 4–3; they 4–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Rocklin FC score 4.3/game — well above the league's 2.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Rocklin FC concede only 0.3/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 at Football Club Alliance, 0–3 at Dublin United Football Club.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 6%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Rocklin FC have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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What a win does
Football Club Alliance sit 4th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.50.A win moves us above Football Club Alliance on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Rocklin FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sonoma Valley United – Rocklin FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.20 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.80 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.40 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.20 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 3%
- 4th 11%
- 5th 44%
- 6th 38%
- 7th 3%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rocklin FC | 3.00 (+1.50) | 1st (2.55) | 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Dublin United Football Club | 2.00 (+0.50) | 2nd (1.76) | 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 3 | ALBION SC Silicon Valley | 2.00 (+0.50) | 4th (1.64) | 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 4 | Football Club Alliance | 1.80 (+0.30) | 3rd (1.69) | Win next game |
How the results connect
9 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Sonoma Valley United to Rocklin FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.37 · 2nd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Rocklin FC 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Home Sonoma Valley High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.27 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM |
ALBION SC Silicon Valley 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD -1 |
Home Altimira Middle School |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.12 | 1.23 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 10:00 AM |
Football Club Alliance 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home Sonoma Valley High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
2–3 | 0.91 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Central Valley 6th · 1-0-2 · GD -2 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
2–2 | 1.08 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
Dublin United Football Club 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +4 |
Home Sonoma Valley High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM |
Rocklin FC 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–4 | 0.16 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Silicon Valley 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.84 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 10:00 AM |
Nevada Futbol Club 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -10 |
Home Sonoma Valley High School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 1.09 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Rocklin FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.28 | -0.27 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Nov 8 vs Dublin United Football Club · Sun Nov 15 at ALBION SC Central Valley See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Dublin United Football Club | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.60 | +0.12 | 94% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sun Nov 8 at Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 15 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | ALBION SC Silicon Valley | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | +0.56 | -0.15 | 88% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Nov 15 at Dublin United Football Club · Sat Nov 21 vs Nevada Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Football Club Alliance | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLWL | +0.07 | -0.08 | 92% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sun Mar 7 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Mar 14 at Dublin United Football Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sonoma Valley United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | -0.20 | +0.37 | 15% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Mar 7 vs Football Club Alliance See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.73 | +0.38 | 11% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dublin United Football Club · Sun Nov 8 at Football Club Alliance · Sun Nov 15 vs Rocklin FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Nevada Futbol Club | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.24 | +0.21 | 0% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Mar 7 at Dublin United Football Club · Sun Mar 14 at Rocklin FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.